According to last week's results, the world's reserve currency has significantly strengthened in the FOREX market against the background of a reduction in the US FRS monthly program of QE3 asset purchases down to 15 billion dollars. We believe that the growth of long-term interest rates on the US government bonds will facilitate the settlement of carry trade transactions in the EURUSD and USDJPY pairs.
At the end of this week, attention should be paid to the third estimate of the US GDP for the 2nd quarter of 2014. A revision of the growth rates for the US key macroeconomic indicators from 4.2% (m/ m) to 4.6% (m/ m) will increase the likelihood of increasing the federal funds rate in Q.1 2015. During the week, the EURUSD pair may be lower to the 1.2750 level, and the USDJPY pair may test the 110.00 mark.
After the referendum held in Scotland, which turned out to be a success for the UK, a resumption of demand for British assets can be expected. In relation to the GBPUSD pair, which came down by 2 figures on September 19, opening a long position at the support level of 1.6250 should be considered.
On September 23, the Aussie, Kiwi and Loonie commodity currencies will closely monitor the HSBC bank's preliminary evaluation of the business activity index in China's manufacturing sector. The projected September decline in the PMI index from 50.2 p. to 50.0 p., will emphasize the correct control measures taken by the Chinese regulator in order to stimulate the national economy. During the week, the pair AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD may test the 0.8850, the 0.8050 and the 1.1000 respectively.
https://www.exness.com/analytics/14/09/22/forecast_for_the_week_september_22__2014___september_26__2014/_______________________
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